Mathematical Modeling and Analysis
Mathematical Modeling and Analysis
The transmissibility of infectious diseases can be quantified by the number of secondary cases generated by a primary infectious case in an entirely susceptible population or basic reproductive number. We estimate the reproductive number of the 1918 influenza pandemic (Spanish flu) in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland using a compartmental epidemic model. The uncertainty of model parameters was determined via a simulation study. We estimate the basic reproductive number for the first wave to be 1.49 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.45-1.53) and the reproductive number for the second wave to be 3.75 (95% CI: 3.57-3.93). In addition, we estimate the clinical reporting rate for these two waves to be 59.7% (95% CI: 55.7-63.7) and 83% (95% CI: 79-87). We found that reductions in the susceptibility of the general population (for the second wave of infection) through increasing hygiene and protective measures, prophylactic antiviral use, and vaccination are more effective and our model predicts control when these reductions are greater than 77%. Control is more feasible when both interventions strategies are implemented simultaneously. For example, our model predicts that a reduction of 50% or greater in the susceptibility of the general population and a reduction of 65% or greater in transmission from hospital wards would guarantee control.
