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Cite Details

Luis M. A. Bettencourt, "Analysis of Current Marburg virus hemorrhagic fever outbreak in Angola", Submitted to Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2005


We compile data from World Health Organization reports to analyze the unfolding outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever in Angola. We describe the outbreak through a standard epidemic model used in the past for Ebola, and employ a stochastic optimization procedure for parameter estimation. We make quantitative prognostics for the expected time to the end of the epidemic and final numbers of cases and fatalities. We also provide an analysis of the effects of ongoing intervention and possible under reporting and place bounds on population movements necessary to guarantee that the epidemic will not regain momentum.

BibTeX Entry

author = {Luis M. A. Bettencourt},
title = {Analysis of Current Marburg virus hemorrhagic fever outbreak in Angola},
year = {2005},
journal = {Submitted to Emerging Infectious Diseases}